MULTINOMIAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF VEHICULAR ACCIDENT IN NIGERIA

Abstract

Vehicular accidents are major problem in developing countries and Nigeria is no exemption to this worldwide dilemma. In Nigeria, transportation has been largely by road and this means of transportation is largely inefficient and defectives resulting in vehicular accidents. The study was carried out in Akure, Ondo state Nigeria. The data used in the study were collected by collating accident records obtain from the Ondo State specialist hospital for a five-year period from the year 2013 to 2017; the records were analyzed using the multinomial logistic regression model. The findings show that 67% of the accident victims were male having death rate of 12.8%, while 46% of the accident victims are in the ages between 14 to 40 years. The findings also revealed that majority of the accidents occurred between the between the 1st and 3rd quarter of each year while the 2nd quarter generally saw a decline in road traffic accidents. The likelihood ratio test reveals that there is a significant relationship between the nature of accident, gender, and age as they have p value less than 0.05. The study recommends establishment of government policies aimed at improving health care delivery to vehicular accident victims, road network should be provided with roadway infrastructures, improvements in pavement construction and maintenance, enforcement of legislation as related to vehicle speed, pedestrian usage of roads as it is believed when all these are adhered to, vehicular accidents will reduce.