Oil price shocks and fiscal policy management: Implications for Nigerian economic planning (1980-2009)

Abstract

High Oil price fluctuations have been a common feature in Nigeria and these have considerably constituted a major source of fiscal policy disturbance to the Nigerian economy as well as the economies of other oil producing countries of the world. The over-reliance on oil production for income generation combined with local undiversified revenue and export bases is an issue for concern. This has policy implications for economic policy and in particular fiscal policy management. The motivation for this study is to examine the effect of oil price shock on fiscal policy in the country. Using structural vector autoregression (SVAR) methodology, the effects of crude oil price fluctuations on two major key fiscal policy variables (government expenditure (GEXP) and government revenue (GREV)), money supply (MS2) and GDP were examined. The results showed that oil prices have significant effect on fiscal policy in Nigeria within the study period of 1980: 1 to 2009: 4. The study also revealed that oil price shock affects GREV and GDP first before reflecting on fiscal expenditure. The study suggests strongly that diversification of the economy is necessary in order to minimize the consequences of oil price fluctuations on government revenue, by implication government expenditure planning in the country.