Browsing by Author "Lischeid, Gunnar"

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    A numerical modelling study of the hydroclimatology of the Niger River Basin, West Africa
    (Taylor & Francis, 2016-01-02) Oguntunde, Phillip G.; Abiodun, Babatunde J; Lischeid, Gunnar
    Adequate water resources management at the basin level needs quality downscaling of climate change scenarios for application to impact assessment and adaptation work. This study evaluates the ability of a regional climate model (RegCM3) to simulate the present-day climate and regional water balance over the Niger River Basin (NRB). RegCM3 gives a good simulation of the NRB hydroclimatic features. The mean bias error for monthly temperature is 1.5°C, 0.3 mm d-1 for rainfall, and 0.4 mm d-1 for runoff. Moderate to high correlations (0.66– 0.95) were found between the modelled and the observed variables. RegCM3-based water cycling indices were not statistically different from the observation. Seasonal moistening efficiency (m) ranges between 19% and 37%; 66% of the available atmospheric moisture over NRB precipitates between June and September, of which 21% originates from local evaporation. The result suggests that the moisture sink period is July to October with very high precipitation efficiency over the basin. The model reproduces the hydroclimatology of the NRB and hence is a suitable tool for further studies relating to the assessment of climate change impacts on river basin water systems
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    Rainfall trends in Nigeria, 1901–2000
    (Elsevier (Journal of Hydrology), 2011-12-09) Oguntunde, Philip G.; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Lischeid, Gunnar
    There is the need to evaluate changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall in order to improve water management strategies of a given region. In this study, standard tests are used to examine the existence of trend in annual and monthly rainfall of Nigeria over the last century. Rainfall variability index was estimated as standardized rainfall departure while autocorrelation spectral analysis is used to obtain the periodicities inherent therein. Rainfall spatial distribution was highly latitudinal dependent (r2 > 0.90) and had no clearly linear relations with the longitude. Rainfall variability index showed that 1950s was the wettest decade (+0.84) while 1980s was the driest (−1.19), with the two decades between 1970 and 1990 being drier than any other comparable period in the last century. Observed rainfall changes varied between −3.46 and +0.76 mm yr−2. About 90% of the entire landscape exhibited negative trends but only 22% showed significant changes at 5% level. There was a sharp difference between changes in rainfalls in 1931–1960 and 1961–1990 periods. Annual precipitation reduced by 7% between the two periods. While more than 90% of the landscape showed no significant rainfall change in the first period, about 57% of Nigeria showed a significant (P < 0.05) decrease in the second. The dominant peaks can be classified into four distinct rainfall cycles with periods 2–3, 5–7, 10–15 and 30 yr. These cycles may be associated with the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the sunspot cycles and the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) sea surface temperature, respectively.