Modelling the Effect of DOTS and Isolation on TB Transmission Dynamics
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Date
2014-04
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
IOSR Journal of Mathematics
Abstract
A deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of Tuberculosis (TB) under Direct Observation
Therapy Strategy (DOTS) and Isolation in Nigeria is developed and rigorously analysed. The model, consisting
of mutually-exclusive epidemiological compartments representing the number of undetected, detected and
isolated individuals who are treated under DOTS programme and those who developed Multi-drug resistance.
The model has a disease free equilibrium (DFE), which is locally asymptotically stable, whenever the maximum
of the associated reproduction numbers of the model (denoted by Rc) is less than unity. Furthermore, the model
undergoes a backward bifurcation, where the disease-free equilibrium co-exists with a stable endemic
equilibrium. Numerical simulations, using epidemiological and demographic data relevant to Nigeria obtained
from WHO and USAID [35,36,38], shows that provided the rate at which the undetected individuals with active
TB recovered exceeded a critical values, then DOTS, the STOP TB initiative programme of WHO can lead to
effective elimination of TB in Nigeria. This suggest that the detection rate plays significant role in the
elimination of TB. Furthermore, it is shown that if the progress or rate of individuals who are susceptible to TB
is low, it can also lead to elimination of the disease in Nigeria. The results also shows that if the effective
contact rate ( ) for TB infection remains below certain critical value (0.187), the disease can be eliminated.
Description
Staff Publication
Keywords
Bifurcation,, Case Detection Rate (CDR),, DOTS,, Dynamical system,, Reproduction number,, Tuberculosis