MATHEMATICAL AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMICAL SPREAD OF CHOLERA
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Date
2017-01
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
International Journal of Innovation and Applied Studies
Abstract
Sensitivity analysis was performed on the mathematical model of Cholera to determine the influence and
importance of each parameter on the basic reproduction number (R0) in the dynamical spread of Cholera. Basic Reproduction
Number (R0) was obtained using next generation matrix method (NGM). The disease free equilibrium was analyzed for
stability and the analysis shows that the disease free equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable whenever the basic
reproduction number is less than unity i.e (R0<1). Also, there exist endemic equilibrium points of the model whenever R0>1.
The relative sensitivity indices of the model with respect to each parameter in the basic reproduction number is calculated in
order to find the most sensitive parameter which the medical practitioners and policy health makers should work on in order
to reduce the spread of cholera in the society. The result shows that effective contact rate and fraction of individuals with
low immunity are the most sensitive parameters in the reproduction number.
Numerical simulation was carried out by MAPLE 17 software using Runge-kutta method of order four to show the effects of
contact rate and fraction of individuals with low immunity in the dynamical spread of Cholera. This work will allow the health
policy makers to know the best control measure to be adopted in order to have disease free environment.
Description
Staff Publication
Keywords
Cholera,, Reproduction Number,, Critical Point,, Sensitivity analysis,, Stability